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A NASA Earth Observatory report published Oct. 8 describes severe drought damage to cotton farms in the Texas High Plains and growing limits on irrigation as the underlying aquifer declines. Satellite images show parched fields and dry playa lakes; recent rain has helped but has not ended the drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor analysis cited by NASA.
Severe drought has killed large areas of dryland cotton in the Texas High Plains, while a long-declining aquifer is leaving some farmers with fewer options to irrigate, according to a NASA Earth Observatory report published Oct. 8. Landsat images show parched fields and dry playa lakes around Lubbock, and farmers quoted in the report said some wells stopped working during the summer.
NASA compared a Landsat 8 image from Sept. 9, 2026, with one from Sept. 22, 2025. The 2026 image showed brown, dry crops and vacant plots across Lubbock and nearby counties, in contrast with the greener landscape in the previous year’s image. The images also show green semicircles and quarter-circles where some farmers irrigate only part of their center-pivot fields, a practice agricultural conservationist Tillery Timmons-Sims said reflects scarce groundwater.
Lacy Cotter-Vardeman, a multigenerational farmer in Lubbock County, told NASA that about 90 percent of her dryland cotton was dead. She said many of her irrigation wells stopped working in August. Timmons-Sims, who used to grow cotton and now works on agricultural conservation, said some wells known to farmers she works with were “pumping air” this summer.
Rain in September and October brought moisture, with NASA’s report linking the weather to a strong El Niño in the Pacific. But the report said the rain had not been enough to end the drought, citing analysis from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Jonathan Case, a NASA Marshall Space Flight Center meteorologist and Drought Monitor author, said about seven inches of rain over three months would be needed to “end” the current drought.
Drought Meets a Declining Aquifer
The drought is unfolding in a region where irrigation depends heavily on the High Plains aquifer, and where groundwater levels have fallen over decades. That combination leaves farmers exposed when rainfall fails: dryland crops can die, while wells may no longer provide a reliable backup for irrigated fields. The report does not quantify the full economic losses from the 2026 season, but the accounts of dead cotton and nonworking wells show the immediate pressure on individual farms.
The water shortage also affects choices about what land can remain in production. Timmons-Sims now works on approaches including converting irrigated cropland to grassland in exchange for water credits, using more water-efficient practices, and developing alternative-energy projects. These efforts address both farm viability and pressure on a shared groundwater resource; their results and reach are not yet specified in the report.
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Groundwater and Playa Lakes
The Texas High Plains sit along the eastern margin of the High Plains aquifer, which supplies irrigation water. U.S. Geological Survey data cited by NASA show that the water table across much of Lubbock County has fallen by 25 to 100 feet since 1950, around the time large-scale groundwater pumping for irrigation began. Declines of 150 feet or more have occurred in some counties to the north, including Parmer, Castro, Swisher and Briscoe.
The region also contains more than 19,300 playa lakes, shallow basins that can collect rainfall and help water seep underground to recharge the aquifer when they are functioning. Many were dry in the September 2026 imagery. NASA says about 80 percent have been modified by tilling or buried by sediment, and many no longer function in this way.
Researchers have used satellite observations to study the playas for decades. A Texas Tech University team’s analysis, published in September 2026, used a deep-learning framework to track thousands of lakes over three decades. Its results found significant declines in playa lakes in 15 of the 45 counties analyzed since 1995. The NASA report does not provide further detail on the scale of those county-level changes.
“This is the first year that we’ve had cotton completely die.”
— Lacy Cotter-Vardeman, Lubbock County farmer
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Rainfall and Farm Losses Remain Unclear
The report does not give a final estimate of 2026 crop losses across the region, the number of wells that failed, or how many farms may reduce or stop production. Cotter-Vardeman’s experience and Timmons-Sims’ observations are attributed accounts, not a regionwide survey of farms or wells.
It is also unclear whether the September and October rain will meet the amount Case said would be needed to end the drought over a three-month period. NASA’s report says the rain had not been sufficient at the time of its account; conditions may change with additional precipitation. The report does not specify how much rainfall had accumulated toward the estimated seven inches.
The satellite images document surface conditions on particular dates, but they do not by themselves establish how much groundwater remains in individual wells or how quickly the aquifer will continue to decline. The longer-term effect of playa restoration, water credits and other conservation measures is also not quantified.
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Farmers Seek Longer-Term Water Options
NASA Acres, a research consortium connecting farmers with NASA science, is working with the Sandhills Area Research Association on agricultural challenges in the region. A NASA Acres listening tour in August visited Cotter-Vardeman’s farm in Slaton, a vineyard in Meadow and cotton fields in Kress. The discussions focused on conserving the aquifer and managing land to restore playa lakes and support groundwater recharge.
Timmons-Sims and colleagues are pursuing water-efficient farming, grassland conversion, water-credit programs and alternative-energy projects. The source report does not announce deadlines or commitments for these efforts. Near-term conditions will depend in part on rainfall, while the longer-term question is whether conservation and changes in land use can help farms adapt to groundwater limits.
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Key Questions
What is happening to cotton farms in the Texas High Plains?
The 2026 drought has severely damaged dryland cotton in parts of the region. Lacy Cotter-Vardeman told NASA that about 90 percent of her dryland crop was dead.
Why is irrigation becoming less reliable?
Farmers rely on groundwater from the High Plains aquifer, which has declined over decades. The report says some wells stopped working or were pumping air during the 2026 summer.
Have recent rains ended the drought?
Not according to the analysis cited in NASA’s report. NASA meteorologist Jonathan Case said about seven inches of rain over three months would be needed to end the current drought, though the report does not give the total rainfall accumulated.
What are playa lakes, and why do they matter?
Playa lakes are shallow basins that can collect rainfall and provide pathways for water to seep underground and recharge the aquifer. NASA says many are dry or have been altered by tilling or sediment.
What steps are being considered to conserve water?
Efforts described in the report include restoring playa lakes, adopting water-efficient techniques, converting some irrigated cropland to grassland for water credits, and developing alternative-energy projects. The report does not quantify their effects so far.
Source: primary
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